Three days away from the trade deadline, any rumors about the Tigers wheeling and dealing remain whispers at best. There’s a silence as the trade market develops, as other teams shop big names such as Kris Bryant and Max Scherzer.
For perhaps the first time in Al Avila’s tenure as Tigers GM, Detroit approaches the trade deadline truly in a position of leverage. Avila has talked at length about not forcing a deal, about executing a trade only if it is sure to make the Tigers better in the immediate future.
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Then again, that’s not so different from what Avila said at last year’s deadline, when the Tigers had recently won five straight and were not entirely out of contention in the wild 60-game season with expanded playoffs.
“If that trade is not there, then quite frankly, we like our team and we’ll keep our team together and we’ll keep on trying to win,” Avila said in 2020. “Even if we made a trade, obviously that’s our goal, is to continue to win more games this year, make ourselves better and for sure make ourselves better for the next year and the following year after that.”
Avila’s trade history still elicits emotional reactions from Tigers fans. And up in the front office, there can also be emotional reactions when decision-makers contextualize and defend why certain deals were made.
Still, another year has gone by, and things do not look much prettier. In the Avila era, opposing teams have gained 27.1 wins above replacement from Tigers players dealt at the deadline. Detroit has received only 2.1 bWAR in return — an increase, at least, of 1.7 since last season.
Now, though, the heaviest lifting in this rebuild is done. The weighty contracts are gone. The club was stripped to the foundation, and now it is being built back up. That makes this year’s deadline interesting. Maybe it is a prime opportunity to strike. Or maybe the Tigers are best off staying put.
Regardless, in what’s becoming an annual feature, here’s an updated examination of the Tigers’ trade-deadline history. Deals are ranked from best to worst.
Al Avila. (Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)1. Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Jeimer Candelario and cash
July 31, 2017
Tigers bWAR gained: 4.9 (so far)
Cubs bWAR gained: 1.3
The context: Alex Avila was on an expiring deal, and the Cubs were all-in on buying bullpen help as they attempted to defend their 2016 World Series title. Candelario was ranked the No. 96 prospect in baseball entering the year but had yet to prove himself at the MLB level. Paredes was a long way from the majors but had plenty of hitting promise.
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The result: Wilson struggled with the Cubs in 2017, posting a 5.09 ERA in 23 games, and the Cubs weren’t able to defend their World Series title. Avila hit .239 in 32 games with the Cubs before moving on to the Diamondbacks the next season.
Although we’re still trying to figure out exactly how Jeimer Candelario fits in the Tigers’ long-term plans, he alone has made this trade worthwhile, developing into a solid MLB hitter. The Cubs were willing to part with two good prospects because their infield was crowded with players who are now on the trade block themselves.
Isaac Paredes has been worth -0.4 bWAR in 48 MLB games. But he is only 22, and the Tigers still hope he can be part of their infield for the long haul.
The verdict: Candelario has become a productive big leaguer, enough to make this trade a win alone. If he continues to improve — and/or if Paredes establishes himself and reaches his potential — this trade looks like a great deal for the Tigers.
2. Shane Greene to Braves for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte
July 31, 2019
Tigers bWAR gained: -1.2 (so far)
Braves bWAR gained: 1.5
The context: Shane Greene was coming off an All-Star first half, and the Braves badly needed bullpen help. The relief market got tight toward the trade deadline, and the Tigers were able to get a good left-handed pitching prospect in Wentz and also took a shot on Demeritte (a 2013 first-round pick) to help with outfield depth.
The result: Greene was still under team control, and he posted a 4.08 ERA in his 2019 stint with the Braves despite leaving Detroit with a 1.18 ERA. Greene was better last season, posting a 2.60 ERA in the pandemic season. He re-signed with the Braves on a one-year deal in May but has struggled to the tune of a 9.00 ERA so far this season.
Wentz posted a 2.10 ERA in Double-A Erie in 2019 and was showing signs of a future as an MLB starter before he needed Tommy John surgery last spring. Wentz is still on the comeback trail but has slowly started pitching better in Double A. He remains a pitcher who could one day be part of the MLB rotation. Demeritte, meanwhile, didn’t exactly work out. He hit .217 over parts of two seasons with the Tigers and is now back in the Braves farm system.
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The verdict: Greene has been up and down in Atlanta, and Wentz still seems like a pretty solid return.
3. Kyle Dowdy and Leonys Martin to Indians for Willi Castro
July 31, 2018
Tigers bWAR gained: -0.8
Indians bWAR gained: 0.1
The context: At the 2018 deadline, Avila and the Tigers flipped Martin’s one-year deal and threw in a 2015 12th-round pick in Kyle Dowdy. Francisco Lindor was blocking Castro in the Cleveland system. At the time, Castro was the Indians’ No. 8 prospect.
The result: Martin was hitting .251 at the time of the trade, but in a strange and scary twist, a life-threatening bacterial infection meant Martin played only six games with the Indians in 2018. He re-signed with Cleveland but was released after hitting .199 through 236 at-bats in 2019. Martin is now playing overseas. The Mets selected Dowdy in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft, then the Rangers claimed him off waivers. Neither destination worked out, and Dowdy is now back in Triple A in the Cleveland system.
For the Tigers, Castro remains a head-scratcher. He hit .349 last year, though his sky-high BABIP always seemed unsustainable. This season, Castro has been moved off shortstop and continues to struggle defensively at second base. Hitting .218 has not helped his cause.
The verdict: Entering the season, this was looking like a very good deal. Now that Castro has leveled off, it’s hard to say. Regardless, flipping Martin for a promising player is still a solid return.
Zack Short. (Tim Fuller / USA Today)4. Cameron Maybin to the Cubs for Zack Short
Aug. 31, 2020
Tigers bWAR gained: 0.5
Cubs bWAR gained: 0.0
The context: Maybin was coming off a strong year with the Yankees but started slow and was battling injuries in Detroit. He was on an expiring one-year deal, and the Cubs were seeking a right-handed outfielder. Zack Short had been left off the Cubs’ alternate training site roster despite a solid minor-league track record.
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The result: Maybin hit .250 in 52 at-bats and didn’t make much of a tangible impact for the Cubs. He is now playing in Triple A in the Mets’ system.
Short, meanwhile, has made a strong impression in his time with the Tigers. He has earned a chance in the big leagues this season and is currently the team’s best defensive shortstop. Although he is hitting only .188 with a high strikeout rate, Short has also shown solid power and plate discipline. The hope is he can develop into a future utility infielder.
The verdict: Too early to tell, but losing Maybin didn’t hurt a bit, and the Tigers have already gained more WAR. Short has already exceeded expectations, and if he can stick in the majors in any capacity, this will be a nice little deal.
5. Kade Scivicque and Mike Aviles to Braves for Erick Aybar
Aug. 16, 2016
Tigers bWAR gained: 0.2
Braves’ bWAR gained: 0.0
The context: Injuries were piling up as the Tigers tried to make a playoff push, so they sought bench help in Aybar.
The result: Aybar had a .341 OBP in 91 plate appearances with the Tigers in 2016, though the team still fell short of the playoffs. Scivicque ended up back with the organization, and Aviles never played for the Braves and hasn’t played in the majors at all since 2017.
The verdict: Yeah, pretty uneventful all the way around.
6. Justin Upton to Angels for Grayson Long and player to be named later (Elvin Rodriguez)
Aug. 31, 2017
Tigers bWAR gained: 0.0
Angels bWAR gained: 3.1
The context: The Tigers owed Justin Upton more than $90 million at the time of this deal, though he was likely going to opt out of the contract at season’s end. The Tigers felt they had to deal him or let him walk away for nothing. Either way, this trade meant Detroit’s rebuild was on in full force. Also of note: It was a needed payroll dump for the Tigers at the time (Avila was mandated to cut salaries, and the Tigers have saved an estimated $72.7 million via trades).
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The result: After a productive 2018 with the Angels, Upton has hit a combined .219 with 35 homers in three years since. He is making $23 million this season and is set to make $28 million next season, when he will be 34.
For the Tigers, Long retired from baseball after his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome didn’t go as planned. Elvin Rodriguez was an upside prospect at the time of the trade and has flashed strong stuff at times in the minors, including a terrific start to this season. He is currently 23 and has a 5.66 ERA in Double A.
The verdict: The Tigers had little choice but to cut ties with Upton, and he hasn’t exactly worked out in Los Angeles. But given his value at the time of the trade (Upton was worth 5.2 bWAR in ’17 as a Tiger), you’d like to think the Tigers could have gotten more big-league production in return.
7. Mike Fiers to A’s for Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore
Aug. 6, 2018
Tigers bWAR gained: 0.0 (so far)
Athletics bWAR gained: 0.8
The context: The Tigers signed Fiers on a one-year deal, and the hope was always to flip him at the deadline. The Tigers wanted to get a higher tier of prospect in return, but they settled for two players to be named later, both of whom turned out to be suitable options for organizational pitching depth.
The result: From his 2019 no-hitter to serving as the whistleblower in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, life has been eventful for Fiers ever since he left the Tigers. Most recently, after a run of success with the A’s, Fiers was placed on the 60-day injured list with a sprained right elbow. Fiers was worth 0.8 bWAR for the A’s in 2018. After re-signing twice with Oakland, he has been worth 3.8 total bWAR. Blackwood is a sidewinder who has shown promise but now has a 5.83 ERA in Triple A at age 26. Shore, also 26, has a 4.44 ERA in six Triple-A starts this season.
The verdict: Blackwood and Shore have made steady progress in the Detroit system, but neither has reached the majors. Fiers’ injury woes this year put a damper on an otherwise strong addition. This deal doesn’t look good until the Tigers see some return at the MLB level.
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8. Nick Castellanos to Cubs for Alex Lange and Paul Richan
July 31, 2019
Tigers bWAR gained: -0.4 (so far)
Cubs bWAR gained: 1.5
The context: The Tigers had tried and failed to trade Castellanos for some time. Castellanos’ shaky defense and a depressed trade market for teams looking to acquire prospects did not bode in the Tigers’ favor. “Quite frankly, there’s been no interest at this point,” Avila said in the winter of 2019. At the same time, Castellanos had indicated he was open to extension talks. At the 2017 Winter Meetings, Avila said the Tigers had approached Castellanos with an extension offer. Castellanos would later claim that was not true. By the 2019 trade deadline, Castellanos’ deal was expiring, and the trade market still seemed minimal.
The result: Castellanos hit .321 with 16 homers in 51 games as a Cub and signed a multiyear deal with the Reds the following offseason. Castellanos is currently hitting a league-best .328 with 18 home runs for the Reds.
Lange has very good stuff and earned a look in the Tigers’ bullpen this season but posted a 6.88 ERA. At 24, Richan has a 3.72 ERA in Double A this season.
The verdict: Castellanos was with the Cubs as a rental, so the WAR loss is minimal. But the optics of what Castellanos has done since continue to make this trade and everything leading up to it look bad for the Tigers. There’s more optimism around Lange and Richan than there was this time a year ago, but we’re still waiting on tangible results.
Jake Rogers. (Raj Mehta / USA Today)9. Justin Verlander, cash and player to be named later (Juan Ramirez) to Astros for Daz Cameron, Franklin Pérez and Jake Rogers
Aug. 31, 2017
Tigers bWAR gained: 0.3 (so far)
Astros bWAR gained: 16.3
The context: The Verlander trade marked the point of no return in the Tigers’ plan to rebuild. Verlander had a 4.73 ERA at the All-Star break, and some were beginning to think he was in decline. That changed after a sterling August, and the Astros went against their analytical models by trading three prospects as they chased a World Series ring. In Pérez, Cameron and Rogers, the Tigers got Houston’s Nos. 3, 9 and 11 prospects in return for their generational ace. At the time, it was viewed as a pretty fair return.
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The result: Verlander was certainly not in decline. He helped the Astros win the World Series and won his second Cy Young Award in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery last fall and is still in the rehab process.
In Detroit, Pérez has battled injuries and has yet to pitch above the High A level, now rehabbing from his own Tommy John surgery. Cameron was once touted as the Tigers’ center fielder of the future, but the team is still figuring out exactly what he will be at the MLB level. He is hitting .200 in 35 career MLB games. And just when it looked like things were entirely bleak for this deal, Rogers made a strong impression before a recent forearm injury, posting 1.3 WAR and helping solidify Detroit’s catcher position.
The verdict: This is not the return the Tigers hoped for, and Pérez’s health woes have really tanked the deal. There’s still plenty of hope for Cameron, and Rogers again looks to have a future in Detroit. But there’s no doubt this trade has not helped the rebuild progress the way the Tigers once hoped.
10. J.D. Martinez to Diamondbacks for Sergio Alcántara, Jose King and Dawel Lugo
July 18, 2017
Tigers’ bWAR gained: -1.4
Diamondbacks’ bWAR gained: 2.4
The context: Yes, the Tigers found themselves in a bad situation. Teams such as the Dodgers and Rockies were once floated as potential landing spots for Martinez. But when push came to shove, Arizona was the only real buyer looking for a rental corner outfielder. The Tigers, who were flirting with the luxury tax, could have extended Martinez a qualifying offer at season’s end and received a draft pick as compensation if he declined. Instead, the Tigers took what they could get — three prospects who were not viewed as a great return even at the time of the trade.
The result: Martinez hit 29 home runs in 62 games for the Diamondbacks before signing a multiyear deal and making three All-Star games with the Red Sox. In exchange for a premium hitter, the Tigers got Alcántara, who hit .143 in 10 games last season and is now with the Cubs. The Tigers also received Dawel Lugo, who was worth -1.1 WAR over parts of three MLB seasons and is now playing in the Mexican League. At age 22, King is hitting .189 at Class A Lakeland.
The verdict: Maybe the market conditions weren’t great, but four years after the trade, it seems the Tigers aren’t getting a single legitimate big leaguer in return. That’s … not good.
(Top photo of Nick Castellanos: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
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